Does the Italian market reward sustainable innovation in industrial baked goods? Evidence from hedonic price analysis and consumer preference assessments

The growing attention to sustainability, health, and circular economy principles is reshaping the agri-food sector and creating new opportunities for the valorization of food by-products. This study investigates whether quality, nutritional, and sustainability-related attributes are already valued in the Italian market for industrial baked goods and explores consumer preferences for innovative products enriched with upcycled plant-based ingredients, with particular attention to almond okara and legume protein fractions. The research integrates revealed and stated preference approaches. First, a hedonic price analysis was conducted on conventional leavened baked goods available in the Italian large-scale retail market, covering four main product categories: bread, rusks, crackers/breadsticks, and piadine and pizza bases. Product information was collected through direct observation and web scraping, and a log-linear OLS model was estimated to assess the implicit contribution of observable product attributes to market prices. Estimated coefficients were converted into percentage price premiums or discounts. Second, consumer preferences are investigated through a Best–Worst Scaling experiment designed to assess the relative importance of nutritional and innovation attributes, quality characteristics, and sustainability and circular economy claims. A randomized between-subjects design will additionally evaluate whether information on the nutritional and environmental benefits of upcycled ingredients affects consumer preferences and willingness to pay. The hedonic analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in the market valuation of product attributes across categories. Organic certification is associated with significant price premiums, particularly for piadine and crackers, while attributes such as extra virgin olive oil, vegan positioning, alternative cereals, and functional ingredients are also positively valued in several product segments. Conversely, conventional nutritional claims show weaker and less consistent effects: “high in fiber” generally has a limited influence on prices, whereas “source of protein” receives a stronger premium in specific categories, particularly rusks. Private-label products are consistently associated with substantial price discounts compared with national brands. By integrating market-based evidence with consumer preference analysis, the study provides a comprehensive framework for assessing the market potential of innovative baked goods incorporating upcycled ingredients. The findings can support firms in product development and positioning strategies while providing insights for policies aimed at promoting circular agri-food systems, by-product valorization, and the development of sustainable plant-based protein sources.