Economic evaluation of the use of by-products in leavened baked goods

The valorization of agri-food by-products is a central challenge for the transition towards more sustainable and circular food systems. An increasing number of food companies are adopting circular economy solutions to innovate their production, differentiate their products through sustainability attributes, and enhance their nutritional and nutraceutical profiles. Within this framework, the study aims to integrate economic, microbiological, and food-technology expertise to enhance the valorisation of by-products generated during plant-based beverage production. In particular, almond okara, naturally rich in fibres, proteins, and bioactive compounds, is investigated as a promising ingredient to meet the growing consumer demand for healthier bakery products. The evaluation of the market potential of this bakery innovation follows a multi-stage approach. First, a market analysis is conducted through a hedonic price model (HPM) to identify how specific product attributes are evaluated in the current market. This is complemented by a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) aimed at eliciting consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for innovative bakery products incorporating agri-food by-products. For the HPM stage, an extensive dataset of more than 1,000 products was collected from the Italian large-scale retail sector, covering eight bakery categories, including sliced bread, crackers, crostini, grissini, rusks, pucce, and flatbreads. The results of the HPM provide the empirical basis for selecting the attributes and levels to be included in the subsequent consumer preference study. Preliminary findings reveal heterogeneous price premiums across categories for attributes related to sustainability (e.g. organic, vegan claims), quality (e.g. origin of wheat, sourdough), and perceived innovation or nutritional enhancement (e.g. “rich in fiber”, “high in protein”, use of alternative flours, etc.). Overall, the integrated evidence is expected to inform both policy design, by supporting strategies for by-product valorization, and business decisions on pricing, positioning, and attribute selection for sustainable bakery innovations.