Stakeholder Profiles And Strategic Scenarios For The Future Of Sustainable Tourism In Apulia: A Random Forest Approach

This study examines the role of sustainability across different tourism sectors in Apulia (coastal/nautical, religious, hospitality, food and wine, tour operators, and major events) with the aim of identifying stakeholder profiles and classifying possible trajectories for the next twenty years. The analysis employs Random Forests to determine the most influential variables shaping decision-making processes and to generate interpretable decision trees that map diverse scenarios of regional tourism development. For each scenario, a synthetic measure of affidability is introduced, combining three dimensions: desiderability (alignment with stakeholders’ aspirations and policy goals), likelihood (probability of occurrence based on current trends and predictive modeling), and importance (strategic relevance for the sustainability of the sector). This composite index allows for a nuanced evaluation of alternative futures, distinguishing between highly desirable but less probable trajectories, realistic yet less transformative paths, and scenarios that balance feasibility with strategic impact. The results highlight differentiated configurations of tourism actors, revealing how sustainability practices, governance models, and innovation capacities interact to shape long-term prospects. By integrating Random Forest determinants with affidability measures, the study provides actionable insights for policymakers and destination managers, offering evidence-based guidance to design forward-looking strategies that enhance resilience, competitiveness, and sustainable development tailored to the territorial specificities of Apulia.