The potential impact of urban agriculture on food production, water management and energy consumption: the case of Padua.

Urban agriculture is increasingly recognized as a key component in the transition toward more sustainable and resilient cities, offering opportunities to address food security, environmental sustainability, and energy efficiency challenges. This study explores the potential impact of urban agriculture on food production, water management, and energy consumption in the city of Padua (Italy), proposing a methodological framework to assess the productive capacity of urban areas through rooftop and ground-based cultivation. The research is grounded in the need to reduce the environmental footprint of urban food systems, which in Europe account for around one-quarter of final energy use and a fifth of greenhouse gas emissions. By reimagining food as an urban planning issue, the paper emphasizes how integrating food production within the urban fabric can simultaneously promote food accessibility, improve resource management, and foster ecological regeneration. The proposed methodology, currently under development, consists of five main phases: (1) spatial identification of areas suitable for “on-ground” and “on-roof” agriculture based on permeability, roof slope, and other physical characteristics; (2) selection of locally adapted crop species according to regional agricultural data; (3) estimation of productive potential under different scenarios; (4) comparison between potential production and local consumption levels; and (5) assessment of possible energy-saving criteria related to proximity of production and mitigation of urban heat island effects. A pilot study conducted in a 165-hectare area of eastern Padua identifies approximately 65 hectares of permeable ground and 14.5 hectares of rooftops suitable for cultivation. Based on local yields of representative crops—apple, carrot, radicchio, and lettuce—the estimated productive potential reaches about 3,000 tons of fruit and vegetables per year, with “on-ground” initiatives contributing the majority. This output could satisfy the annual fruit and vegetable needs of approximately 17,900 inhabitants, about four times the population of the pilot area. Urban agriculture can contribute to reducing energy use and emissions by shortening supply chains, decreasing food transport requirements, and improving building energy performance through rooftop greening. However, realizing these benefits requires a systemic approach integrating social, economic, and environmental dimensions. The study underlines the necessity of refining spatial selection criteria by including ownership, land use, and socio-economic factors, which will likely reduce the available surface but improve the accuracy of potential assessments. Future research will expand the analysis to the entire urban area of Padua, enabling the identification of a citywide network of productive and multifunctional green spaces. Such a network could strengthen urban resilience, mitigate heat islands, and enhance stormwater management, positioning urban agriculture as a strategic component of sustainable urban planning and climate adaptation.