THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON TOURISM AND ECO-NOMIC GROWTH IN BALKAN COUNTRIES

Abstract: Tourism is one of the main economic sectors for many countries in the Balkan area, in par-ticular for Albania, Montenegro and Croatia, which have made the most of their geographical posi-tion to attract tourists from abroad. The success of the tourism sector has led to a convergence of the economic structure, creating a dependence, also due to the scarce diversification options of their economies. COVID-19 has hit tourism hard and exposed the dependency of the states in question, showing an unbalanced and highly volatile economic model, especially during the crisis period. Starting from these facts, this study will try to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the countries of the Balkan area. Three small Balkan countries (Croatia, Albania and Montenegro) have been select-ed and the double-digit contribution of tourism on the GDP will be used. Methodologically, varia-bles will be analyzed on: growth, volatility and the weight of tourism on the economy; through pan-el data for the period 2000-2020, which will also make it possible to compare similarities and differ-ences between the impact of the pandemic in the tourism sector with that of the other global shock, such as the financial crisis of 2008-2009. In conclusion, the goal is to investigate the impact that COVID-19 has caused on the economies of the Balkan countries, and what challenges must be faced to resume economic growth and cope with the fragility of an unbalanced economic structure. Finally, an estimate will be made of the repercussions of the war in Ukraine on the tourism sector of the small Balkan countries.