The role played by migration and fertility on Italy’s aging trends: a provincial-level analysis

The main purpose of this paper is to quantify and compare the contributions made both by fertility and migration in the rapid aging process taking place in Italy at the provincial level. The relative variations of different indicators (concerning migration, fertility, mortality and age structure of the population) between 2011 and 2019 are analyzed in two differentiated empirical steps. In the first, through principal components factors analysis, both the relationships among variables under examination and the dynamics of their evolution at the provincial level are defined. In the second step, estimating a regression model, the roles of the determinants linked to fertility and migration on the evolution of the aging process are identified and quantified. Our results indicate the levels of fertility of Italian women as the most important decelerator of population aging, within a highly heterogeneous context at the provincial level.