PINGU and the neutrino mass hierarchy: Statistical and systematical aspects

The proposed PINGU project (Precision IceCube Next Generation Upgrade) is supposed to determine neutrino mass hierarchy through matter effects of atmospheric neutrinos crossing the Earth core and mantle, which leads to variations in the events spectrum in energy and zenith angle. The presence of non-negligible (and partly unknown) systematics on the spectral shape can make the statistical analysis particularly challenging in the limit of high statistics. Assuming plausible spectral shape uncertainties at the percent level (due to effective volume, cross section, resolution functions, oscillation parameters, etc.), we obtain a significant reduction in the sensitivity to the hierarchy. The obtained results show the importance of a dedicated research program aimed at a better characterization and reduction of the uncertainties in future high-statistics experiments with atmospheric neutrinos.