Il movimento turistico in Basilicata: quantificazione e proiezioni

This paper describes a statistical procedure which, tested in Basilicata, is able to supply regional administrations and tourist companies with reliable data, obtained in noticeable advance in relationship to official surveys, useful to: • know the tourist flow in different regional areas; • evaluate regional data in comparison to the other Italian regions; • establish the efficiency of possible operational measures (promotional campaigns, events, etc.); • work out strategies able to favour the increase of tourist flows in case of negative data; • sustain and encourage tourism in the weakest areas; • deepen sector studies throughout the year. The statistical population of the experimental survey is made of the active accommodation facilities in Basilicata, among the almost 650 present in the regional database. From this population, a reduced sample of facilities is obtained through a complex sampling, able to represent the population properly. Stratified samplings are planned according to the areas (Matera, Potenza, Maratea, Jonian Coast, Pollino and rest of the territory), the accommodation typologies (hotels and other facilities) and to the previous year tourist traffic size (in this procedure, above or under the limit of 11.000 presences). The survey is carried out through the ISTAT form that the facilities’ managers are obliged to provide via paper or via e-mail (often after repeated reminder). A lot of managers are in fact used to postpone the data transmission until the very end (that is January of the following year, when the annual final data are to be sent to ISTAT), even if they are frequently urged to send monthly data (as regional and national laws have established): this is the reason why an estimation partially based on a probability sampling is required.