From sea to land: Multidisciplinary characterization of a vulnerable coastal system as a basis for sea-level rise impacts assessment

This paper presents a multidisciplinary study aimed at the characterization of a coastal area located in the Apulian Regional Natural Park “Dune Costiere da Torre Canne a Torre San Leonardo” (southern Italy) exposed to erosion of the beach dune system. The results aim to provide a solid scientific background for enhancing the conservation of threatened coastal habitats. The research also seeks to offer insights into the potential impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems, to support adaptive and sustainable management strategies. To accomplish these objectives, a comprehensive set of field activities was conducted, including high- resolution aerophotogrammetric surveys, systematic sampling of water, sediment, and soil, followed by chemical and physical analyses of the collected samples. Furthermore, a biological survey was carried out to provide details on the floro-faunistic characterization of key habitats and species within the study area. The study focused on two selected coastal sites (Fiume Piccolo and Fiume Morelli), identified as representative sites for the whole coastal system within the Park due to their distinct morphological, hydrogeological, and sedimentological features. The investigated areas are of particular interest, given their ecological sensitivity and exposure to environmental pressures. The integration of geospatial data with physico-chemical analyses and biological indicators enabled a detailed understanding of the current state of the investigated coastal systems. In particular, analyses of mid-term shoreline evolution reveal a general trend toward erosion, with maximum retreat values up to 0.9 m/ year. Sea-level rise simulations indicate that, under the most critical climate scenario (SSP5-8.5), by 2150 the areas affected by flooding could exceed 1.08 km2 in the Fiume Piccolo area and 3 km2 in the Fiume Morelli area. These processes would have a direct impact on dune vegetation, compromising the presence of dune-stabilizing species. The outcomes of this study contribute to identifying critical vulnerabilities and offer a reference framework to support the implementation of strategies aimed at preserving the ecological integrity of the Mediterranean coastal zones under the increasing threat of climate change.