Remote sensing-based assessment of human activity and biophysical trends in Europe's Mediterranean coastal zones (2014-2023)

Europe's Mediterranean coastal zones face increasing pressures from urbanization, tourism, and climate change. To assess these dynamics, this study applies a remote sensing-based, transnational, pixel-level trend analysis over a ten-year period (2014-2023) within a standardized 10 km coastal buffer across Southern Europe. The analysis examines biophysical and human-activity-related indicators, including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), Nighttime Light (NTL), and built-up cover using Mann-Kendall trend statistic. The results show that EVI decline remained localized, affecting about 5% of the study area, mainly in Croatia and Turkey. A widespread increasing trend in LST was observed, affecting 55% of the coastal zone, especially in the central Mediterranean region. Regionally, the Eastern Mediterranean showed the strongest increase in NTL intensity. Furthermore, despite the limited increase in built-up areas, the rise in NTL intensity suggests that many coastal areas are undergoing functional intensification rather than only physical urban expansion. The findings indicate that Mediterranean coastal zones are experiencing different combinations of human activity, land-use change, and thermal patterns. The study provides evidence-based insights to support integrated coastal zone management and long-term monitoring in Europe's Mediterranean coastal regions.