Transport poverty, inequality and absolute poverty: Testing a transport Kuznets curve in a dynamic panel framework

Transport poverty is increasingly recognised as a structural driver of absolute poverty. This study examines how transport poverty shapes poverty outcomes and how transport policies can mitigate these effects. We propose the Transport Poverty–Growth–Inequality (TPGI) framework and test a Transport Kuznets Curve (TKC) describing the nonlinear relationship between transport development and transport inequality. While the core analysis is conducted at the regional level using dynamic panel models, robustness is assessed through supplementary crosssectional and panel analyses at provincial and municipal scales. The results show that transport poverty significantly increases absolute poverty, especially in the southern regions where mobility constraints are most binding. Transport poverty is alleviated by both transport development and policies aimed at inequality reduction, though development exhibits a stronger marginal effect. This interaction is nonlinear: consistent with the TKC, transport development initially increases inequality but reduces it beyond a critical threshold. Overall, the findings indicate that transport investments must be complemented by equity-oriented measures to achieve inclusive and poverty-reducing outcomes.