We examine whether monetary policy affects investor beliefs using equity option prices. Put options are significantly cheaper during accommodative policy periods, consistent with a “Fed put” effect. Critically, this relationship is strongest when investor risk aversion is high. The Fed put effect is economically large in the pre-2008 period but vanishes post-crisis, suggesting the financial crisis permanently altered expectations of Fed intervention. Our instrumental variable approach addresses endogeneity and reverse causality.
Fed put in the equity options markets
Poti, ValerioMembro del Collaboration Group
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2026-01-01
Abstract
We examine whether monetary policy affects investor beliefs using equity option prices. Put options are significantly cheaper during accommodative policy periods, consistent with a “Fed put” effect. Critically, this relationship is strongest when investor risk aversion is high. The Fed put effect is economically large in the pre-2008 period but vanishes post-crisis, suggesting the financial crisis permanently altered expectations of Fed intervention. Our instrumental variable approach addresses endogeneity and reverse causality.File in questo prodotto:
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