Ecological optima show the potential diffusion of minor tree crops in Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca-infected areas through a GIS-based approach

Site selection analysis is a fundamental methodology for the regeneration of Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca (Xfp) infected areas, with the introduction of Xfp immune/resistant tree crop species. The diffusion of these species could be assessed by combining ecological optima data, climate and soil attributes of the study area, and GIS tools. The study aimed to evaluate the potential suitability of eight Xfp immune tree crops, including Neglected and Underutilized Species (NUS) drought-resistant and new species, as follows: carob, hawthorn, prickly pear, mulberry, loquat, walnut, persimmon, and avocado. The use of GIS tools allowed the integration of different layers, such as climate and soil, to contribute to the identification of suitable areas for the cultivation of these tree crops helping the policy-makers to define plans for land use at a regional scale. Following the ecological optima, which represents the ideal environmental conditions for each species, this analysis provided valuable insights into the compatibility of the selected tree crops with the prevailing environmental factors in the affected area. Carob revealed its remarkable adaptability and drought resistance, presenting the broadest suitability. Hawthorn and Loquat also exhibited high adaptability, indicating their potential contribution to agricultural diversification and ecological balance. Conversely, crops like Avocado, Prickly pear, and Walnut, despite their economic value, demonstrated limited adaptability due to their specific soil and climate requirements. These findings can potentially contribute to the development of strategies for the policy-makers, aimed at diversifying and enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems, facing the problem of emerging quarantine pathogens and the incoming climate change, and highlighting the possibility of opening new cultivation scenarios in the zones affected by Xfp.