Assessing the temporal and cause-effect relationship between myocarditis and mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. A retrospective observational study

Objective: In 2021, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported increased cases of myocarditis and pericarditis in the United States after mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. Our study aims to estimate the incidence of myocarditis in Apulia (Southern Italy) and the cause-effect relationship between COVID19 mRNA vaccines and the risk of myocarditis. Methods: The Apulian regional archive of hospital discharge forms was used to define the cases of myocarditis in Apulia, considering data from 2017 to 2022. The overall vaccination status of patients was assessed via data collected from the Regional Immunization Database. The history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was extracted from the Italian Institute of Health platform. Results: Since 2017, 5687 cases of myocarditis have been recorded in Apulian subjects; the overall incidence described a decreasing trend, with a slight increase in 0-40 years-old subjects. From 2021 to 2022, 2,930,276 doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines were administered; a diagnosis of myocarditis after the second dose of the mRNA vaccine was reported for 894 (0.03%) of Apulian inhabitants, with an incidence rate of 17.9 × 1,000,000 persons-month. The multivariate analysis, adjusted for age, sex, underlying medical conditions, and diagnosis of COVID-19, showed that mRNA vaccination is a protective factor for myocarditis even in younger subjects (aOR = 0.4; 95% CI = 0.3-0.5). Conclusion: A temporal association between an exposure and an outcome is not equivalent to a causal association. Our study underlines how an approach that considers the other potential causes of myocarditis (primarily COVID-19) and a causality assessment must be prioritized in the study of the topic.