This work aims to forecast (over 1, 5, and 15 years) the extremes, the expected value, and the volatility of natural disasters occurrences. To achieve this objective, we adopt a generalized two-factor square-root model linking together occurrences and volatility through stochastic correlation (Brownian motion). We use a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to forecast the maximum number of occurrences as a measure of value at risk (VaR). The results are checked in terms of accuracy, compared versus some baseline models (i.e., the Poisson process and the extreme value model) and backtested.

A generalized two-factor square-root framework for modeling occurrences of natural catastrophes

Orlando G.
;
2022-01-01

Abstract

This work aims to forecast (over 1, 5, and 15 years) the extremes, the expected value, and the volatility of natural disasters occurrences. To achieve this objective, we adopt a generalized two-factor square-root model linking together occurrences and volatility through stochastic correlation (Brownian motion). We use a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to forecast the maximum number of occurrences as a measure of value at risk (VaR). The results are checked in terms of accuracy, compared versus some baseline models (i.e., the Poisson process and the extreme value model) and backtested.
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11586/417472
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo

Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 2
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 2
social impact