Some Early Estimates of the Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Apulian Tourism Sector in 2020

Due to its strategic position on the cruise routes across the Mediterranean Sea and the around 800 kilometres of coastline, Puglia is one of the most attractive regions in Italy, providing for a variety of artistic sets such as museums, castles, churches, and this heritage, combined with natural and archaeological sites, attracts millions of people every year, producing a huge income. Starting from 2019-2018 data comparisons, the aim of the work is to focus on the impact of Covid- 19 pandemic on tourism sector and to produce some early reflexions on its evolution in 2020. It is interesting to understand how tourist flows have changed and how this can influence economy. The regional tourism agency Pugliapromozione is the primary data source; regarding forecasts, ISTAT and ENIT are the sources for the national scenario, and SRM for Puglia and South of Italy. Up to the first 10 months of 2019, nights spent by international tourists in Italy were over 360 million (+4.4% compared to 2018) and brought revenues of about 40 billion (+ 6.6%). The number of travellers has also increased about 2.2% compared to 2018 and all these numbers describe a very favourable trend for Italian tourism. Regarding Puglia, tourism is a driver for regional GDP, with a significant increase of 6%, mostly due to 1.2 million visitors from abroad (+ 11.5% compared to 2018). About 2020, although three scenarios have been predicted, the results of the one forecasting a rapid recovery is considered, as it seems the most realistic. The model assumptions are: 1) safeguarding of the summer season and enhancement of the psychological factor based on the need to travel; 2) positive effects of the national and regional tourism governance policy providing for the extension of summer season up to October; 3) policies to support national tourism demand with financial aids to families (“holiday bonus”); 4) attractive pricing policies by tourism firms. The model estimates a 10% drop in tourism demand, corresponding to over 1.5 million visitors less, and the appreciable recovery signs are mostly due to domestic tourism. Moreover, a different tourism behaviour has been imposing, triggering new opportunities: tourism offer reorganized over long term, investments in sustainability and synergy among culture and territories. Puglia has lots of places so far little visited which, avoided by mass tourism, have kept their own authenticity and it can bring added value in the next tourist destinations.