This paper investigates an open economy macrodynamic model on Harrodian lines. The analysis starts with a reconsideration of the post-Keynesian Thirlwall’s approach to growth in open economy. We cast doubt on the Thirlwall idea aimed at rendering the concept of Harrod’s foreign trade multiplier genuinely consistent with Harrod’s dynamics. Following a different procedure from Thirwall’s approach, we start from Harrod’s dynamics in a closed economy and investigate what happens when the foreign trade is introduced. An important result of our model is that, according to Harrod’s intuition, there is less cyclical instability in the open economy than in the closed one where chaotic instability prevails. Dynamics in our model exhibits a limit cycle. Finally, the model shows that the possibility of an export-led growth strictly depends on the technical progress dynamics.

Harrod's dynamics and the Kaldor-Thirlwall export-led growth

SPORTELLI, Mario
2007

Abstract

This paper investigates an open economy macrodynamic model on Harrodian lines. The analysis starts with a reconsideration of the post-Keynesian Thirlwall’s approach to growth in open economy. We cast doubt on the Thirlwall idea aimed at rendering the concept of Harrod’s foreign trade multiplier genuinely consistent with Harrod’s dynamics. Following a different procedure from Thirwall’s approach, we start from Harrod’s dynamics in a closed economy and investigate what happens when the foreign trade is introduced. An important result of our model is that, according to Harrod’s intuition, there is less cyclical instability in the open economy than in the closed one where chaotic instability prevails. Dynamics in our model exhibits a limit cycle. Finally, the model shows that the possibility of an export-led growth strictly depends on the technical progress dynamics.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11586/22539
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