Farmers' stated preference analysis towards resources use under alternative policy scenarios

This paper considers farmer's stated responses to CAP scenarios, identifies the extent to which these plans would be influenced by the introduction of CAP abolishment from 2014 and considers the implications in terms of likely changes (i.e. increases or decreases in the deployment of chemicals and water resources on the farm). The analysis uses data from a large sample survey of household farmers across 11 case studies in 9 EU countries. Intended responses of farmers to the CAP scenarios are analysed by means of logistic regressions. The results indicate that CAP abolishment would not stimulate strong agricultural changes in resource use, rather it appears to be reinforcing many existing trends, namely towards decreasing chemical use and steadying water use. However, CAP abolishment would impact unevenly on the farm community and different farming situations are associated with different types of reaction. In addition, significant regional differences have been found according to the model regression. Indeed, in the case of New Member States, farmers show a greater preference to decrease chemicals and water use if the current CAP support was abolished. On the basis of the results presented in this paper some policy implications emerge. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.