Built-up area exposure to landslides and related social impacts in Molise (Italy)

Italy is historically affected by a number of natural hazards, which include landslides, floods, earthquakes, snow avalanches and sinkholes, all of them posing severe threats to the socio-economic development in many portions of the country. In central-southern Italy, Molise stands among the sectors most prone to landslide occurrence where mass movements regularly affect towns and villages, causing frequent damages to assets such as infrastructures or houses. For these reasons landslides may influence the life quality of the population in the area. Aim of this study is to explore the relationships between the spatial distribution of landslides and the social environment in Molise, with a particular focus on the impact that landslides produce on the local population. We present an exposure analysis that considers the interaction of the highest susceptible areas with the built-up environment. Furthermore, for each municipality of the region we attempt to find a correspondence between the average level of landslide susceptibility with the Demographic Malaise State indicator (SMD). The SMD is a composite index that analyses the changes of growing/decreasing rates in the local population. In this way we attempt to achieve a better understanding of how the environment degradation (in terms of landslide occurrence and evolution) could promote out-migration from the affected areas. This study is a contribution to improve the knowledge of the relationships among landslide prone areas and social effects in the Molise territory, which can be essential for the development of efficient strategies for landslide risk reduction.