Influence of the CAP reform on livestock: Outlook for selected European regions by 2020

Livestock producers have been widely affected by past reforms of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This paper analyses the post-2013 CAP influences on farmer decision making in terms of how many livestock units to keep on-farm under the 'with' and 'without' CAP scenarios. The analysis is based on a survey of 1,301 specialized livestock farms across nine European member states carried out in 2009. The changes in trend in the number of animals reared take into account the different livestock typologies. The results show that the member states that have most recently gained accession are most sensitive to CAP reform, along with organic farming and livestock systems located in hilly and mountainous areas. All are expected to show a decline in their numbers of livestock, while specialist dairy units are expected to increase.